How the economic cost of Brexit is being hidden from Leave voters

That is the exercise that John Springford at the Centre for European Reform is regularly performing and he calculates that GDP was 2.3 per cent lower in September 2018 as a result of the Brexit vote. That roughly translates into the average household losing almost £2,000 worth of resources (mainly lower private consumption, but also lost public spending and investment). This number is broadly consistent with estimates the governor of the Bank of England gave in May, using a different method.

To get a handle on the public resources we are currently losing as a result of Brexit, Springfield calculates that the GDP lost would amount to taxes being lower by £17bn a year. Given the way this government runs its fiscal policy, that means we could have had tens of thousands more police officers and nurses if Brexit had not happened. This isn’t a forecast, but an estimate of what Brexit has already cost us.