Brexit Briefing: Theresa May's EU budget bargain

John Springford of the Centre for European Reform, a think-tank, tells me the UK offer will make little difference to the chance of an interim deal. “Berlin insists that budget payments will not allow Britain to pick and choose,” he says. “And if we consider that the UK’s net contribution would be spread between the other net contributors, it’s not a game changer.”

Mr Springford says the stance the UK takes on the free movement of EU citizens, one of the bloc’s four freedoms, is more important. “If the UK won’t agree to all four freedoms as well as budget contributions in an interim deal, perhaps by copying the EEA (European Economic Area) agreement, if not joining the EEA, then the EU27 may let the UK take its chances with WTO terms until an FTA can be signed.”