Three years on, Britain still waits for Brexit dividend

"It's been more than a slow burn. It's been a serious reduction in economic performance," said John Springford, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank.

"If you impose barriers to trade, investment and migration with your biggest trading partner (EU), then you're going have quite a big hit to trade volumes, and to investment and to GDP," he said, pointing to a string of dismal economic data.

...Springford estimated that Brexit reduced Britain's economic output - compared with what it would have been without leaving the EU - by around 5.5% as of mid-2022, based on a "doppelganger" model in which an algorithm selects countries whose economic performance closely matched pre-Brexit Britain.

..."It's concerning that there doesn't seem to be any kind of pickup in investment. And I think, in order for us to have a durable recovery from the Brexit shock, then we've got to see that rise," Springford said.