Judy Asks: Will Iran and Saudi Arabia go to war?

If “war” means military clashes between Saudi and Iranian forces, then probably not. Neither Tehran nor Riyadh has an interest in direct military hostilities, and the latest escalation will not be enough to change that calculus now. The vast ballistic and conventional arsenals of both states should be effective deterrents. Iran will not invade Saudi Arabia, or vice versa. The Strait of Hormuz will not be mined (as it was during the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s). But Saudi-Iranian relations are likely to become more tense, more adversarial, and more violent.

The two countries are already at daggers drawn. Their involvement in proxy conflicts in Syria and Yemen, their economic competition as Saudi Arabia tries to defend its share of the global oil market in anticipation of new Iranian exports, and Riyadh’s deep suspicion of Iran’s nuclear program and the July 2015 nuclear accord mean the situation is volatile and dangerous.

Making matters worse, a number of Arab countries support Riyadh’s position, further deepening Sunni-Shia divisions. Outside powers, like the United States, seem unable to cool tempers. So expect sabers to rattle: proxy conflicts may flare, missiles may be tested, and angry mobs may take to the streets, but the world will be spared an all-out Saudi-Iranian war—hopefully.

Rem Korteweg is a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform.