The Brexit bill: £100bn hit to UK exports as toy, medical kit and jewellery sales slump

John Springford, an associate fellow at the Centre for European Reform (CER), a pro-EU think tank, said his analysis “shows that Brexit is leading to permanent depression to trade between the UK and the EU”.

“If Brexit hadn’t happened, and we can visit the universe where Remain won the referendum, then trade and [the economy] would be significantly higher,” he said. Mr Springford dismissed arguments from Brexiteers that further trade deals with countries outside of the EU could make up the economic shortfall.

“That argument violates one of the few absolute certainties we have in international economics, which is that trade with nearby large economies is always going to be much bigger than trade with distant smaller economies,” he said.

Economist Thomas Sampson, an associate professor at the London School of Economics (LSE), said Brexit had been a “drag on the economy” and described Mr Springford as a “respected analyst”. Mr Sampson said that while there was nuance in how to interpret the numbers, you “cannot question the quality of his work”.