Four years on, what should Britain do to expedite a Ukrainian victory?
The first thing the UK needs is to be honest with itself about three things:
- Peace is not around the corner. Putin has no interest in peace, except on terms that amount to Ukraine’s surrender;
- Ukraine’s resilience is not infinite. European nations cannot rely indefinitely on the Ukrainians’ ability to withstand the terrible conditions the Kremlin is inflicting on them without breaking;
- Donald Trump, President of the United States, is not on Ukraine’s side, nor that of European countries. Trump has sought to bully Ukraine into making concessions that would fatally undermine it militarily and politically, almost guaranteeing renewed conflict in Europe.
Against that background, Britain and its allies and partners must treat Ukraine’s security as their own: if Ukraine loses, Putin will target another state, perhaps a NATO ally. They should step up sanctions, including by seizing ‘shadow fleet’ tankers transporting Russian oil. They should invest in rapidly increasing defence production, for themselves and Ukraine, even if that means an increase in budget deficits. And they should put aircraft in the skies over Ukraine to blunt the Kremlin’s efforts to destroy Ukraine’s economy and society – all without waiting for a peace deal or an American ‘backstop’ that will not come.
None of those steps will guarantee that Ukraine defeats Russia and regains territory, but without them, a Russian victory will become more likely.